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Typically, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year award follows a simple pattern. It frequently functions as a form of mea culpa. Sorry we got wrong your team in our pre-campaign forecasts.

On paper, it's a direct path: the skipper who oversaw the largest improvement is handed the award. In reality, it sparks an yearly argument about preseason outlooks and whether we're genuinely honoring superior coaching or just the greatest surprise.

Yet the current race is distinctly unique. The group of candidates is unusually deep. It has been the year of comebacks. The league has been chaotic, with recent conference champions fading and recent strugglers rising in unison. During an ordinary year, Sean Payton guiding the Denver Broncos to the summit of the conference would make him the overwhelming front-runner. But in such a turbulent and fun season, he's competing with multiple other elite candidates.

This is how the hypothetical vote could be structured.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, Their Record

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors adore QBs. They always have. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. If you transform a quarterback, you're well on your way to winning the award.

The Bears' head coach not only fixed Caleb Williams; he's unleashed him. Within an ideal system, Williams has been afforded the chance to display his otherworldly ability. From midseason onward, the Bears sit at fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a hot streak – it's sustained dominance. Under Johnson, the quarterback has become more confident, far less careless, and has eagerly submitted to the gameplan rather than improvising. It is an offense built solely in Johnson's image: a bully-ball ground attack, a steady helping of play-action passes and a innovative aerial game that springs wide receiver targets consistently. Williams has capitalized. And when easy reads haven't been available, he's been able to spin big plays out of nothing.

The coach arrived to the Bears with a specific offensive blueprint. Virtually every bet – rebuilding the offensive line, highlighting the pass-catchers, transforming Williams into a timing-based thrower – has paid off. That's uncommon for a rookie head coach. And it's even more uncommon yet for a leader who walked into the building with the level of expectations Johnson did. For two straight cycles, he was the top candidate on the coaching carousel. However when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are no guarantees. Remarkably, Johnson has met expectations – and even exceeded them. He's proven not only to be a scheme wizard but the kind of culture builder that can breathe new life into an franchise.

During a normal year, he would be the runaway choice. Yet this isn't a normal year!

Where Johnson's case comes a bit into trouble is on defense. The Chicago defense currently sit in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are relying on turnovers, and takeaways are notoriously fickle. Coaches can focus on creating turnovers, but no one can guarantee it. He is on the list because the offense is sustainable. He's not higher because variance is doing too much of the defense's work. If not for a few bounces of the ball, the team would be several wins worse off. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the core is in place for long-term winning. However Johnson falls short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, His Team, 12-4

Coen is in a similar position to Johnson. He's another rookie leader who has engineered a swift turnaround. During the crucial final weeks of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the most complete overall ball of his career. And he's also spearheaded the remaking of a defense that now sits at fifth in the NFL in EPA per play.

What's more notably, he has nailed the off-field stuff, which was not a given following his early press conference introduction and some of his offseason moves.

Coen walked into Jacksonville with an exceptionally raw coaching staff. In contrast to Johnson, who surrounded themselves with the ideal staff blend of new ideas and veteran savvy, he bet on newbies. Starting with the head coach himself to assistants to position coaches, the Jags are filled with first-timers. That kind of approach is intriguing on paper, but often fails in practice – with other teams are a warning – because everyone is learning a new job on the fly. Yet he has pulled everyone and everything together.

Following an initial hot start, there was a risk that the season would veer off the rails. A midseason collapse caused the team stumbling once more. That's typically when coaches panic and change too much. Coen did not. Instead, he streamlined things. The offense stopped chasing home-run plays and started seeking consistent ones. Coen refocused the offense around his playmakers and the ground attack, and asked his QB to use his legs more.

The results are obvious. The Jaguars have won multiple games consecutively and will be the conference's number three seed. Coen receives the tiniest deduction in the standings because he inherited a skilled roster, but he has proven he can maximize that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, 13-3

Each Strong of the Year case has a pivotal decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB decision.

Parting ways from a incumbent, bringing in a different signal-caller and pairing him with an innovative play-caller might have derailed the season in October. Instead, it shaped it. Through the middle point of the season, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player front-runner. He has regressed since that hot streak, slipping to a lower rank in efficiency per pass attempt over the second half of the schedule, putting him only one spot ahead of peers.

Still