Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that divided the nation and triggered disorder, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two respected journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially contentious and transformative public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our region remains very unstable."
Book Publication Aims to Stir Debate
The duo have analysed the political, financial and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the matter with a tour of lectures that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everybody, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose implications have not been clarified because then you land with an extremely split population where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the those successful are uncertain quite what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is imminent, and a group named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there will be a national vote.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unification has masked the absence of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which could extend past that to make it possible is mostly absent. A lot has gone on in scholarly circles but hardly any elected officials or advocates seek to involve themselves with even the fundamentals. For instance, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, none of the commentators endorses unity or the current situation. They composes two articles that strive for objectivity in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling economic and societal figures, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Debates range over flags and symbols, levies, health services, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The objective is to educate and stimulate dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there is still lacking a dialogue," said the writer. "Discussion implies an acknowledgement of the notion that there could be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they favour unification but oppose paying higher taxes or introducing a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to determine what the proposal from Irish nationalism is other than just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist thinks a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it could happen unexpectedly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a feckless official who declares: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have plausible, legitimate arguments, he stated. "Somebody will win in this matter and the other side will eventually be defeated but each side has got important lessons to acquire from the other's positions."
Request for More Extensive Debate
Westminster needed to participate in the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish question."